Bulls, Bitcoin, & Beyond

Market Moves Yesterday

S&P 500 @ 5,930.85 ( ⬆️ 1.09%)

Nasdaq Composite @ 19,572.60 ( ⬆️ 1.03%)

Bitcoin @ $97,687.13 ( ⬆️ 3.41%)

Hey Scoopers,

Happy Monday! Here’s what we’re covering today 👇

👉 Earnings estimates for 2025

👉 U.S. ETFs continue to attract funds

👉 Ethereum ETFs gain popularity

So, let’s go 🚀

Market Wrap

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered on Friday, offering some relief after a challenging week that saw the index experience its longest losing streak since the 1970s, including a dramatic 1,100-point single-day decline.

The rebound was partly fueled by encouraging inflation data. November's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, showed a 2.4% year-over-year increase, slightly below economists' expectations.

This data helped ease concerns that had emerged earlier in the week when the Fed indicated it would reduce planned rate cuts due to persistent inflation worries.

The day's upward momentum was broad-based. All eleven sectors of the S&P 500 closed higher, led by strong performances in real estate and information technology.

The positive sentiment was reflected across the market, with only 53 stocks in the S&P 500 ending the day in negative territory.

However, despite Friday's rally, the major indices recorded weekly losses:

• The Dow fell 2.3% for its third consecutive losing week

• The S&P 500 declined nearly 2%, and

• The Nasdaq Composite dropped approximately 1.8%

Trending Stocks 🔥

Novo Nordisk - Shares of the healthcare giant plunged over 20% after reporting disappointing late-stage trial results for its experimental weight loss drug.

Carnival - The cruise line operator jumped more than 6% after it said it is seeing strong demand in 2025 and 2026.

FedEx - The stock jumped after the courier heavyweight announced a spinoff of its freight business. Elsewhere, it reported earnings of $4.05 per share, above estimates of $3.90 per share.

Tech Sector Forecast to Drive 2025 Earnings

Analysts are projecting robust growth for the S&P 500 in 2025. Next year, earnings are expected to grow 14.8% year over year, surpassing the 10-year average of 8.0% 🚀.

This growth story has two distinct narratives: the "Magnificent 7" companies are forecast to lead with 21% earnings growth, while the remaining 493 companies are expected to show 13% growth – a significant improvement from their projected 4% growth in 2024.

• The outlook shows broad-based strength across sectors, with all eleven sectors projected to deliver positive earnings growth 👀.

• Revenue growth is also expected to exceed historical averages, with a projected 5.8% increase compared to the 10-year average of 5.1% 💰.

• Perhaps most notably, profitability is expected to reach historic levels. The projected net profit margin of 13.0% for 2025 would set a new record since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008 💸.

• It would surpass the previous high of 12.6% set in 2021 and stand well above the 10-year average of 10.8%.

ETF Inflows Surge to $1 Trillion in 2024

The U.S. ETF market continues to demonstrate remarkable growth. By November, assets under management had reached $10.2 trillion, and annual flows were trending toward a historic $1 trillion milestone.

November proved particularly strong, with $158 billion in inflows, a 35% increase from October. Launch activity showed some moderation, with 46 new ETFs debuting in November, representing declines of 32% from October and 25% from the previous year.

The breakdown of launches reveals 28 new equity ETFs (down from 57 in October) and 14 fixed-income products (up from 5). Additionally, four mutual funds completed conversions to ETF structures.

Within specific categories, alternative investments saw growing interest with $180 million in inflows, while commodities experienced outflows of $826 million, particularly affecting gold and energy ETFs.

Sector-specific trends showed financials maintaining its position as the leading attractor of new assets, while technology demonstrated consistent month-over-month flows. Energy sector flows continued to show significant volatility.

While ETFs were initially conceived as index-tracking vehicles, actively managed ETFs have grown exponentially. They now capture over 25% of total ETF inflows this year—more than double their share from two years ago.

This shift reflects both organic growth and an increasing trend of mutual fund conversions to ETF structures.

Ethereum ETFs See a Surge

The Ethereum ETF market experienced a surge in December, attracting $1.66 billion in new investments, accounting for 74% of the total $2.24 billion inflows since these products launched.

BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has emerged as the market leader. On December 5, it set a single-day inflow record of $292 million, demonstrating the asset manager's strong influence in the cryptocurrency ETF space.

While Fidelity's FETH holds second in popularity, its inflow levels consistently trail behind BlackRock's offering. The market structure shows significant concentration, with total Ethereum ETF assets under management reaching approximately $11 billion.

Other ETH ETF providers have attracted relatively modest investor interest, creating a more concentrated market than the more diversified Bitcoin ETF landscape.

While Ethereum's market capitalization stands at approximately $474 billion, this strong inflow pattern suggests a growing institutional appetite for cryptocurrency exposure beyond Bitcoin.

The concentration of flows toward established financial institutions like BlackRock indicates that institutional investors prefer accessing crypto markets through traditional financial infrastructure providers.

Headlines You Can't Miss!

Cruise line offers unlimited pass for $120k

Volatility spikes as overheated assets cool off

Starboard aims to drive AI growth at Riot Platforms

Volkswagen to cut 35k jobs in Germany

El Salvador makes Bitcoin payment voluntary in IMF deal

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. The newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell assets or make financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.