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Bulls, Bitcoin, & Beyond
Market Moves Yesterday
S&P 500 @ 5,955.25 ( ⬇️ 0.47%)
Nasdaq Composite @ 19,026.39 ( ⬇️ 1.35%)
Bitcoin @ $88,782.13 ( ⬇️ 7.12%)
Hey Scoopers,
Happy Wednesday! Are you ready to tackle the midweek mania?
👉 Nvidia to report Q4 earnings
👉 HIMS shares pullback on lower margins
👉 Bitcoin enters bear market territory
So, let’s go 🚀
Market Wrap
The S&P 500 dropped on Tuesday, marking its fourth consecutive decline as investors grappled with mounting economic worries.
Markets pulled back after the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey came in significantly below expectations, adding to last week's disappointing manufacturing and retail sales data.
Walmart's cautious guidance further dampened sentiment about consumer health.
Key developments:
Investors sought safety in bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.3%
Major bank stocks declined on recession fears, with Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and JPMorgan Chase each falling more than 1%
Tech momentum stocks weakened, with Nvidia dropping 2.8% and Tesla plunging over 8%
Trade tensions escalated as President Trump confirmed tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will proceed after the current moratorium ends
According to Bloomberg News, rising concerns about semiconductor export restrictions to China added to market uncertainty.
Wall Street loads up on surprising $2.1tn asset class
Bank of America. UBS. JP Morgan. They’re all building (or have already built) massive investments in one $2.1tn asset class—and it’s not what you think. It’s not private equity or real estate, but fine art. Why?
In partnership with Masterworks, data from Citi shows it’s a potent diversifier with low correlation, and certain segments have even outpaced traditional investments. Take blue-chip contemporary art, which has outpaced the S&P 500 by 64% (1995-2023).
Masterworks knows the power of art investing, with their platform giving 900k+ users the opportunity to invest in this asset class as part of their overall portfolio strategy. In fact, from their 23 exits so far, Masterworks investors have realized representative annualized net returns like +17.6%, +17.8%, and +21.5%* (among assets held for longer than one year).
With so many users, Masterworks offerings can sell out quickly.
Past performance not indicative of future returns. Investing Involves Risk. See Important Disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.
Trending Stocks 🔥
Jack in the Box - The fast-food chain is up 10% in pre-market after reporting fiscal Q1 earnings of $1.92 per share, above estimates of $1.69 per share.
Workday - Shares of the human resources software company are up 12% in pre-market after it reported Q4 earnings of $1.92 per share on revenue of $2.21 billion, compared to estimates of $1.78 per share and $2.18 billion, respectively.
Instacart - The grocery delivery stock is down 8% after it reported revenue of $883 million in Q4, below estimates of $891 million. It also forecast adjusted EBITDA at $225 million, while consensus estimates were higher at $237.1 million.
Nvidia’s Q4 Report to Drive Market Sentiment
Nvidia reports fourth-quarter results Wednesday after market close, capping what analysts expect to be one of the most remarkable financial years for a large company in recent history.
Wall Street anticipates $38 billion in quarterly sales in fiscal Q4 of 2025 (ended in January), a 72% year-over-year increase.
So, Nvidia’s sales are on track to more than double for the second consecutive year, driven by overwhelming demand for its GPUs, which power AI services like ChatGPT.
This growth has propelled Nvidia's stock up 478% over two years, briefly making it America's most valuable company, with a market cap exceeding $3 trillion.
However, Nvidia's stock momentum has stalled since October as investors question future growth. Recent concerns include:
The heavy concentration of sales to a small group of "hyperscalers" building massive AI server farms
Morgan Stanley estimates Microsoft will account for 35% of 2025 spending on Nvidia's latest Blackwell chips
TD Cowen report suggesting Microsoft may be scaling back data center expansion plans
The emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek, whose efficient "distilled" AI model raised questions about whether AI advancement necessarily requires Nvidia hardware
Despite these concerns, Nvidia's key customers continue announcing substantial infrastructure investments.
Alphabet targets $75 billion in capital expenditures this year, Meta plans up to $65 billion, and Amazon aims for $100 billion.
Analysts estimate that half of AI infrastructure spending flows to Nvidia.
HIMS Stock Nosedives 22%
Hims & Hers Health shares tumbled 22% on Tuesday, continuing a steep decline that began last week.
Despite reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, investors focused on disappointing gross margins and regulatory challenges to its weight loss business.
The telehealth company posted impressive numbers in Q4:
Revenue jumped 95% year-over-year to $481 million, exceeding consensus estimates of $470 million
Earnings stood at $0.11 per share, above estimates of $0.10
Net income soared to $26.01 million from $1.25 million a year earlier
However, its Q4 gross margin of 77% was below estimates of 78.4%. Further, the FDA recently announced that the shortage of semaglutide injection products had been resolved, driving HIMS stock lower by 26% last Friday.
HIMS acknowledged that compounded semaglutide, which generated over $225 million in 2024, will likely be removed from its platform after Q1 as the FDA begins enforcement actions against compounders in the next 60-90 days.
CEO Andrew Dudum stated: "We will have to start notifying customers in the coming month or two that they will need to start looking for alternative options."
Hims & Hers plans to pivot its weight loss offerings to oral medications and generic liraglutide. Excluding compounded semaglutide, it expects to generate at least $725 million in weight loss revenue in 2025.
Crypto Market Plunges Amid Mass Liquidations
Bitcoin tumbled below $86,000 Tuesday, hitting a yearly low as part of a broader cryptocurrency selloff that saw Ethereum, XRP, and Solana drop more than 10%.
The GMCI 30 index, representing the top 30 cryptocurrencies, fell 9.6% in 24 hours.
The dramatic price action appears driven by a perfect storm of factors:
Market weakness in both crypto and traditional stocks triggering a cascade of forced selling
Mass liquidations as leveraged traders hit stop-loss points, creating a domino effect of selling pressure
Uncertainty surrounding President Trump's announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico
Risk-off sentiment following disappointing economic data
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $539 million in net outflows on Monday alone, extending a five-day outflow streak to $1.1 billion
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plummeted to a five-month low of 25, reflecting market pessimism.
Despite the selloff, some analysts remain optimistic for the medium term. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick suggests lower U.S. Treasury yields could eventually benefit Bitcoin, though he cautions against buying the dip immediately.
Bernstein analysts are maintaining their $200,000 Bitcoin price prediction by year-end.
Market veterans note that this volatility is typical for cryptocurrency cycles. Previous dramatic corrections often create buying opportunities for long-term investors.
Headlines You Can't Miss!
Tesla’s market cap sinks below $1 trillion
Trump floats $5 million “gold card” as a route to U.S. citizenship
Lucid CEO steps down
Super Micro files fiscal 2024 financials, avoid delisting
Crypto market cap falls to November 2021 levels
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. The newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell assets or make financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.